Ceasefire Agreement: A Step Towards A Renewed Belligerence?

Ceasefire agreements are commonplace for countries in an eternal arms struggle. These agreements do not have profound longevity to regulate violence at international borders. The first-ever ceasefire agreement signed on July 27th, 1953 was called the armistice. According to protocols, it ended the Korean war between the North & South and restored their primordial state. Recently, a ceasefire agreement was signed between India and Pakistan for restoring normalcy at the borders. Finally, it is a denouement to a prolonged blame game between the two countries.

History and Aftermath

The first-ever formal ceasefire agreement signed between India and Pakistan was the Karachi Agreement on 27th July 1949. It laid boundaries over the control of Indian Jammu & Kashmir and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (Azad Kashmir referred to by Pakistanis). But after the wars in 1965 and 1971, new treaties to cooperate were established which resulted in the Karachi agreement becoming obsolete. The second formal agreement was signed in 2003 between the then Prime Minister Zafarullah and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The agreement operated until the 26/11 attacks caused the destabilization. The agreement under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi has raised many eyebrows. Being a robust critic of Pakistan, citizens find it difficult to believe the plausibility behind the agreement and what factors govern the same.

The agreement has sparked enthusiasm amongst the quarters of the Indian Political diaspora. The fact that it is termed as a tactical step rather exposes the impatient approach of the current government. It observed that this agreement elicits to pacify the borders and reduce the shelling and artillery exchanges. The above mutualization is a hunky-dory assumption considering the traitorous behaviour of Pakistan. Being the flag-bearer of terrorism invokes hatred amongst the youth of Kashmir to fight against their own country. According to the stats, approx. 191 Kashmiri youth joined the Jaish-e-Mohammed camps in 2018. Even the Pulwama attack was carried out by local Kashmiri youth from the Pulwama district. In 2015 Sushma Swaraj refused Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s four-point program to regulate tensions at the Line of Control (LoC) under the U.N. Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP).

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There are no positive happenings between the two countries on the political front. Since the uprising of the cricketer turned politician Imran Khan as the Prime Minister of Pakistan, the diplomatic relations have achieved no common grounds. Imran Khan has used repellent language to vilify India’s domestic policy towards Jammu and Kashmir. While commenting on the ceasefire agreement Imran Khan deliberately included Kashmir as the central point behind the agreement. The agreement involves top-level military officials of Pakistan, one of them being General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who has supported the campaign for the liberation of Kashmir. It is Mr. Bajwa who is spearheading the agreement with the Indian DGMOs. Though the verbal agreement is an aggrieved promise as Pakistan has seen over three major military coups which have lasted for more than ten years.

Analysis

The cardinal point in the agreement signed by the two DGMOs is to ‘address each other’s core issues’’. These core issues are particularly cross border terrorism for India and Kashmir for Pakistan. The above core issues were eternal for decades when the first agreement in 2003 got formalized. After the agreement in 2003, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Parvez Musharraf agreed to regulate the core issues like cross border terrorism, the Kashmir crisis and setting up robust confidence-building provisions. But the perplexed relations between Musharraf and Manmohan Singh failed to sustain the sanctity. Analysing the convoluted retrospective history, the present agreement would lose its sanctity if there is a major terrorist attack. It would completely zero down the peace process as both countries would indulge in military ripostes.

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One of the acquisitive aspects of the agreement for Pakistan is that it will supplement in correcting the image of Pakistan which is in economic distress and terror elements. On the foreign front, the country has lost the consequential US advocation both on economic and defence fronts. Also, it got blacklisted from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) after the Pulwama attack. One of the key factors governing this agreement is the succour of the United States towards both countries. Pakistan was unable to regulate diplomatic relations during Trump’s rule. It is looking forward to strengthening the same with Biden. As democrats uphold ideals of liberalism, the Modi government’s co-operation in the agreement will further augment the US-India partnership. The US State Department has welcomed the step to resolve border conflicts and suggested that the two countries avoid any direct conflicts in the future.

Conclusion

The conclusion to this unending quest is a solution that holds substantial concordat. This agreement would only supplement the preparation strategies for both countries. India would work on beefing the security on the border in case of an escalation and Pakistan would look forward to strengthening its foreign front. The agreement is a win-win situation for India as she knows that it is a matter of time Pakistan goes back to playing its old tricks and the agreement shall become void.


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